Back in 2011 I mocked the brand equity industry for playing catch-up in valuing Apple. Everywhere I look the evidence is that these brand equity valuations rise long after the stock price rises, and decline long after it declines.
It’s the same story for predictions of sales success.
In short they predict nothing. They just tell us things we already knew.
By 2012 Apple was entrenched as the most valuable brand in the world, not surprising given that much earlier it had achieved the highest market capitalisation. Brandz gushed that Apple’s brand equity had risen a further 19% in their estimation.
Since then I’ve not heard any reports from the brand equity industry predicting a decline in Apple’s value. Meanwhile its stock price has almost halved since September 2012 (see graph below).
Here’s my prediction – soon (ie mid-late 2013) the brand equity firms will announce a decline in Apple’s brand equity. Even though Apple’s sale revenue has continued to climb (see chart 2 below and this link). Even in traditional markets like the US it has increased its market share in phones and computers.
So if the brand equity firms do downgrade Apple’s brand equity it will have to be based on its stock price. What value do these equity values give then, when anyone can look up the stock price of any public company and be many months ahead of the brand equity valuation?
Chart 1 – APPL Stock price
Chart 2 – APPL Sales revenues